...guter Tip für den nächsten Kurzurlaub

Plauderecke über Wettersituationen und Beobachtungen
Antworten
Benutzeravatar
DocSchneida
Offline
Beiträge: 48
Registriert: 08 Dez 2020, 07:38
Wohnort: Potsdam / OT Golm

...guter Tip für den nächsten Kurzurlaub

#1

Beitrag von DocSchneida »

Hab heute mal den Inmarsat IOR angezapft..... (is legal)


Also östlich von Madagascar würde ich die nächsten Tage nicht in den Urlaub fliegen wollen...

LES21 Marlink 10.10.107.29 24-MAR-2021 20:33:40 063070
SECURITE SECURITE SECURITE

WTIO30 FMEE 071341
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/13/20202021
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION 2021/03/07 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.2 S / 80.3 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/6.0/W 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 957 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 11 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 60 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/03/08 00 UTC: 17.9 S / 80.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SW: 175 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 55

24H: 2021/03/08 12 UTC: 18.7 S / 80.3 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SW: 175 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 55

36H: 2021/03/09 00 UTC: 18.9 S / 79.3 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SW: 215 NW: 130
34
<~ ~ ~>
W: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 55

60H: 2021/03/10 00 UTC: 18.4 S / 76.2 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 215 SW: 205 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 130 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

72H: 2021/03/10 12 UTC: 18.3 S / 74.7 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 215 SW: 205 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/03/11 12 UTC: 18.6 S / 72.4 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 215 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 55

120H: 2021/03/12 12 UTC: 19.5 S / 70.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 260 SW: 230 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 90 SW: 80 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.0 CI=6.0-

OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS, HABANA EYE PATTERN DECAYED SIGNIFICANTLY.
DESPITE THE COLDER TOPS, THE EYE LOST DEFINITION AND NEARLY DISSAPEARED
IN CLASSICAL IMAGERY. MICROWAVE DATA CONFIRM THE WEAKENING OF THE INNER
CORE ESPECIALLY, THE EYEWALL IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT (SSMIS 1110Z)
WITH THE 89GHZ. THE LOWER INNER CORE LOOKS HOWEVER RATHER HEALTHY IN
37GHZ. THE WEAK TO MODERATE NORTH-NORTH-EASTERLY SHEAR SEEMS THE MORE
LIKELY REASON OF THIS DECAY, PROBABLY FAVORED BY THE SMALL SIZE OF HABANA.

NO CHANGE IN THE PHILOSOPHY OF THE TRACK FORECAST MADE BY THE RSMC:
HABANA IS FOLLOWING A TRACK IN A GENERAL EAST-SOUTH DIRECTION, GRADUALLY
MOVING SOUTH-EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND, DRIVEN BY THE NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE. AT THE END OF SUNDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW DOWN WITH THE
WEAKENING OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE BEFORE GRADUALLY TURNING WESTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS RE-INFLATING TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE METEOR. THERE IS STILL A STRONG DISPERSION OF
AVAILABLE MODELS ON THE EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE TURN WESTWARD
AND A LONGER RANGE.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, THE NORTHERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO GET WEAKER,
WHICH MAY HELP HABANA START INTENSIFYING AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER
DURING THIS PERIOD, HABANA IS ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY. SO IT IS NOT
IMPOSSIBLE THAT A COOLING OF THE SST MAY OCCUR. IN THIS CONTEXT, GIVEN
THAT AN ERC MAY START AND THE SIZE OF THE CYCLONE, INTENSITY FORECAST IS
REALLY UNCERTAIN.
WITH NO MAJOR FLAW IN THE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE MAIN PERIOD, HABANA
SHOULD MAINTAIN A STRONG INTENSITY ESPECIALLY MID NEXT WEEK, WITHIN A
VERY CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT. AT THE LATEST RANGE, THE INCREASING WESTERLY
SHEAR MAY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.


DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS, HABANA DO NOT THREATEN ANY INHABITED ISLAND.




SECURITE SECURITE SECURITE

PHONE : +262 262 43 43 43
FAX : +262 262 71 15 95
INMARSAT : 422 799 193
MF : 2182 KHZ
MAIL : REUNION(AT)MRCCFR.EU (IN LOWER CASE)


Gruß Alex
N52°24´ E12°58´ / 43m NN

Froggit GW1000A / HP1000SE Pro + div. Sensoren
CumulusMX auf RasPI

Cresta WXR815LM + WsWin

WU: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IPOTSD35
Weathercloud: https://app.weathercloud.net/d5663159728#current
Antworten